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ECB’s Knot: Real probability ECB rates to rise further in Oct, Dec.
ECB’s Knot: ECB rates must rise 0.25 pts in Sept if conditions are the same.
Money markets price 125bps of BoE hikes by September.
ZEW: The economy is still exposed to numerous risks such as effects of sanctions against Russia.
Eurozone ZEW Survey Expectations Actual -28 (Forecast -, Previous 29.5)
Today’s Data (Tuesdays)
source: investing.com
Yesterday’s Market Profile and Price Action Debrief (Monday)
Market Imbalance: OTFD Daily Weekly Monthly
Market profile, debriefing Monday 13th June
An ON open gap 3878.5 from the previous low/close saw no attempt by buyers to lift from the Sunday re-open. The auction moved to slice through all major references until finding a temporary bottom at the century figure 3800. The ON auction continued on a steady path, trending lower into the RTH( Regular Trading Hours) and opening OAOR just below 3798. A full 100 points lower from the prior close 3798.25 AND below the year’s low 3809-a key reference. With On inventory 100% short, participants waited to see if there would be a reaction from buyers on the Open.
Much like Friday open, the open reversal would be weak and failed even to acknowledge the upper distribution of the ON lower node 3823. An open swing high to 3818 and then another slightly higher attempt to 3819.5 came from the open swing low 3792, giving the shorts a double top to play for a continuation lower.
The auction ground lower into the opening low in choppy fashion until we broke the opening lows. Prior areas of activity and expected support failed to slow the auction until it found a base at the large HVN on the composite chart 3750. This was a well-defined HTF target.
Buyers gained some composure to trade back through the IB LOW 3767 and back up through the range, but the auction up fell just short of the day’s high-key clue.
Buyers and sellers continued to trade blows in the middle of the day’s range until (L Period) a WSJ story broke, and this triggered another liquidation through the lows to find buyers at 3735.25 the composite LVN. A weak PB into the close 3753.5, leaving a clear buying tail.
Buyers will want to protect this spike which is a crucial reference for tomorrow.
Forgive me for not providing levels at this point Going to see what happens ON.
Normal Variation Day, Liquidation Continuation, OTFD daily, weekly and monthly
H: 3819.5 L: 3735.25 VPOC 3779.00 VWAP 3777.25 SETTLE: 3753.25
MONITORING 3750 (Spike base) and 3779(Yesterday VPOC)
Yesterday’s Price Action Review
A guide to the daily price action
MONDAYS CORRELATIONS
Some correlations
ON Update
Post-Monday Settlement buyers stepped up and auctioned higher to test yesterday’s VPOC 3779 area. A shallow PB followed, before holding above 3779, then impulsing higher to 3796, then grinding up to 3807( 2 points below the prior monthly high).
The EU futures open saw sellers retake control of the auction ( perhaps aided by the weaker ZEW survey), where we have continued to grind back down following a retest above the century figure. Auction is now testing back down, looking for buyers.
Currently, 3763 is a critical prior swing low following the initial PB from the VPOC.
6 am CT So far we are inside yesterday’s range where buyers have been found inside yesterday’s MP spike base 3750 and sellers protecting the prior month’s low 3809. High Volume established post settlement at the base of today’s profile so I will keep my eye on those lows.
Double Distribution, LVN 3780 area (yesterday POC)
H: 3807.5 L: 3744.5 VPOC 3751.5 PRIOR SETTLE: 3753.25
One essential tip is to note where the aggressive ON PA has taken place and observe these areas.
Overnight Overview
Live Journal Tuesday 14Th
0730 CT Initial reaction to PPI muted
Quote Of the Day
“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” -Keynes
Trade Well And Prosper.
BT
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