July flash PMIs, CPI, and Eurozone sentiment data in focus
Flash PMIs will be released towards the end of the week for the US, UK, Eurozone, Japan and Australia. The surveys will offer a first look into worldwide economic conditions in June and will follow CPI data for the UK, Canada, Singapore, Japan and Malaysia. Some key economic releases, such as Eurozone, US and India current accounts as well as UK retail sales are also lined up.
Events Calendar: Source Investopedia
Monday, June 20
U.S. Markets Holiday (Juneteenth)
Tuesday, June 21
Existing Home Sales (May)
Chicago Fed National Index (May)
Wednesday, June 22
Stellantis (STLA) reports earnings
Fed Chair Powell Testimony before Congress (U.S. Senate Banking Committee)
U.K. Inflation Rate (May)
Eurozone Consumer Confidence (June)
Thursday, June 23
Friday, June 24
Fed Chair Powell to Address Congress
On Wednesday and Thursday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will address the U.S. Congress, as part of a two-day semiannual testimony on monetary policy delivered to the U.S. Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee. Powell’s address on Capitol Hill will come a week after the Federal Reserve conducted its largest rate hike in 28 years, raising its benchmark federal funds rate by three-quarters of a percentage point. In recent months, addressing high inflation has become the top priority of the U.S. central bank, and Chair Powell is likely to draw attention to the issue in the upcoming address to Congress.
May Home Sales Updates
On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) will release its May report on existing home sales, which are projected to have fallen to 5.4 million in May, from 5.61 million in April. This compares to a pandemic era peak of 6.65 million in January of 2021, and would represent the lowest figure since June of 2020 amid a slowdown in the nation’s housing market as homebuyers are squeezed by rising mortgage rates and declining affordability. Later in the week, the U.S. Census Bureau will also release the latest data on new home sales for May. New home sales are projected to have declined slightly to 580,000 in May, from 591,000 in April. This would mark the lowest figure since late 2018, falling below the April 2020 low of 582,000.
June Consumer Sentiment Reading
Next Friday, we can expect the final reading of the University of Michigan’s June Consumer Sentiment Index (MSCI). The preliminary reading, released last week, showed consumer sentiment falling to a record low. The current index reading of 50.2 is the lowest in the index’s history dating back to 1952. Rising prices, particularly for gasoline and food, has weighed on consumer sentiment in recent months. Consumer sentiment updates are also expected abroad, with June consumer confidence readings for the eurozone and U.K. expected on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
Weekend Reading:
Opex
This is an interesting statically sound look at how IV isn’t necessarily affected by the actual event. 3-4 Witching is just the expiry of existing options. Volume is increasing as dealers roll over positions taken by participants (you). Nothing spooky about the whole thing but there are some general characteristics of the week which should be observed.. This is not for a discussion for today but the video below sheds some light.
Mental game
I can’t help finding incredible life teachings when watching’ Star Wars’. Here excellent piece by Artemis Fund managers that talks about our need for immediate gratification and how we must forgo such desires if we are to succeed. Think about taking profits too quickly, see if you can apply these to your trading thought process.
Weekly Review
I chose to highlight the week’s moves using a 5 -minute chart with a volume profile. Given the size of the moves post-Sundays opening gap, there are surprisingly very few areas of interest to me going forward. The main focus will be if buyers can protect the weekly lows at 3639 and buyers can close the and hold above the mid-week gap 3812-3723 and maintain the auction above the early week’s balance. The chart looks a little messy apologies but tried to fit in some of the HTF targets should we break below last week’s lows.
OPEX WEEKLY DOUBLE DISTRIBUTION PIVOT 3712
Profile Review and Areas to be Observed
I will be monitoring the weeks VAL for hold and an attempt to break above the week’s lower distribution range, if the gap (3712-3723) can be successfully filled I will be looking to see if the auction can be maintained inside the prior area of balance and last weeks upper distribution (3823-3843) short positioning likely to get squeezed above here. The week’s mid and volume ledge 3741 will be a good first test.
Should the early week’s auction drop below the week VPOC at 3775 I will look to see a push back to the weekly and yearly lows of 3639. The auction has been extremely weak and I will maintain my short bias for now (buyers would have to end daily and weekly OTFD for me to alter course). So for now I am looking to sell rallies and cover on the breaks lower. Balance rules apply.
WEEKLY B Distribution, Closed Mid of lower weekly distribution and 2-Day Balance (3712 -3639)
Monthly, weekly, and daily all OTFD
H 3843 L 3639 VPOC 3775 VWAP 3732 CLOSE 3675
HTF REFERENCES
All images can be found on my Twitter feed in high resolution. Please let me know if you have issues much appreciated.
UPDATE:
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