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Today’s Data
Yesterday’s Market Profile and Price Action Debrief
Market profile into OPEX
Debriefing Thursday 16th June 2022: BOE HIKES 25BPS, BOND V REVERSAL
Yesterday ON buyers attempted to penetrate the Wednesday spike but failed, creating a high at 3833.25. Asia session Sellers then drove the auction lower, ignoring all the previous day’s references into the EU session, which saw an acceleration post BOE rate hike. The handover to the RTH session left the auction with a gap to the prior open and 1 POINT BELOW Tuesday Year Lows 3708.5.
ON Inventory short into the open 3707.5 a failure to see a response to the year lows could see a further drop in price to advertise for buyers.
A quick look at the OPEN PA
Indeed the response was the week, sellers absorbing buyers into 3711.75 before a sharp impulse let everyone know of the auction’s intentions. The auction post impulse would chop lower until it found a base at 3642. Auction found a bid into the settlement 3673.5
See yesterday’s Tweet. For a full footprint breakdown.
LTF combine to excellent effect. Also just look at the HTF chart on the left just trade. Can anyone tell me the areas they should be looking to trade? Trading is about simplicity and not staring at your monitor all day. Please Love and retweet. pic.twitter.com/iGaK44WXba — The Balanced Trader (@Trading_Balance) June 16, 2022
Buyers will be looking to end OTFD above 3711 and establish acceptance inside the prior three-day balance. Sellers will be looking to break below yesterday’s lows but may find buyers at the previous close 3773/ yVPOC area and the JDAPBH.
NeutralDay, Liquidation Continuation, OTFD daily, weekly and monthly
H: 3711.75 L: 3642 VPOC 3670 VWAP 3673.75 SETTLE: 3773..52
MONITORING 3711 (yHI), 3723(GAP), 3740 and 3670 (yVPOC)
TRADING PLAN
On Inventory is extended, I will be observing to see if there is an adjustment down to 3693 yesterday close before a potential continuation of the ON trend. This is my second case scenario and the most obvious.
I favour a scenario where we see a reversal of the ON move and a continued liquidation lower. This is just from experience with OPEX events, and I will leave it at that.
I will be looking to see buyers attempt and fail to auction higher on the open and will be monitoring the ON high 3713 and gap 3723. Footprint and PA will be my guide. Opex events can be really tricky but the moves can be monstrous. Given the moves yesterday there may be a possibility that not much happens. All very vague so I will mainly be monitoring the auction at key levels and looking for a change.
BTW NOT TRADING until at least next week so I only did this write-up for you guys so please retweet share and spread the word. Much love BT.
Opening bell
Looks like we will be in for a period of chop given the open so far. Open quite balanced following the large drop into the close ( surprising) but then the push back on the open failed to material breach yesterday’s highs
I always think chop if we see a big upswing then reversal
It maybe chops in a singular direction but chops until one side gives up
Opex flows seem to be in full flow.
BOE talking in 2 min
NONE OF THIS CONSTITUTES FINANCIAL ADVICE AND ITS JUST MY PERSONAL JOURNAL THAT I SHARE! All Opinions are my own as should yours.
Quote Of the Day
Have a great weekend
Trade Well And Prosper.
BT
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