Week Ahead Highlights: ECB and US CPI Out this Week
This week features the much-awaited ECB meeting (Thursday) and important US CPI inflation figures (Friday). Besides that, we will follow the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey (Friday) and policy meetings in Australia (Monday), Poland (Tuesday), and Russia (Friday). We will also pay close attention to Chinese PMI figures (Monday), which are poised to show a rebound from the reopening after the Covid lockdowns.
In the US, CPI inflation figures will display stubbornly high prices. Headline inflation is likely to stay flat printing at 8.3% y/y (consensus: 8.2%), while core inflation will fall towards 6.1% y/y (consensus: 5.9%) with a slight risk to the downside.
Events Calendar:
Monday, June 6
HealthEquity (HQY) reports earnings
Tuesday, June 7
Wednesday, June 8
Thursday, June 9
DocuSign (DOCU) reports earnings
ECB Interest Rate Decision
China Inflation Rate (May)
Friday, June 10
U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (May)
Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Preliminary Reading (June)
Weekend Reading:
ECB time… When trading events like these it's always good to have a process that helps you spot the highest probability opportunities, the outcomes that will surprise the most and helps strip out noise I use a simple 3-step process, here is an example for the ECB below… pic.twitter.com/hcJYAlD66L — Arno Venter (@ArnoVenter9) June 8, 2022
Learn about the Fed’s Beige Book.
A qualitative reflection of economic conditions into the next rate meeting.
Finally
Profile Review
Month/ First Week Review| WE 3rd May 2022| NFP FRIDAY
MONTHLY PROFILE
The auction was contained in the HVN from the prior month. Having rallied into the month-end and then finding a temporary Hi @4202 in the Holiday session, sellers then took control of the auction to attempt and fail to break through the prior week’s Open gap at 4173-4179. For the auction to then reverse back to a lower high into the NFP data into Friday. Longs liquidated into NFP eventually gave little or no need for a change in economic consensus. The auction closed in balance @4108.75 just below the WVPOC @4117. The first week of the month closed near the weekly RTH pivot and VPOC 4117.
Buyers will want to maintain the auction above this week’s session lows and Sellers will be looking to end the weekly OTFU below 4171.
Weekly
WEEKLY PROFILES
A look at the daily rotations and pivots: A very balanced week
PROFILE ROTATION
1. Holiday session, bullish momentum carries over into thin liquidity. Buyers eventually succumb to passive sellers and week longs exit positions. The auction rotates back lower. 2. Sellers fill the open gap left from the 26-27th May but passive buyers exhaust shorts and they retreat back to the prior days’ VPOC. 3. Early attempt to break below the prior gap but passive buyers absorb liquidity at the lows frustrating shorts, and they cover. Short covering trend into Friday NFP. 4. Short covering rally lacks strength into NFP and trends lower ( back to Weekly Mid and VPOC) into NFP. Whipsaw NFP before prior direction resumes.
A very balanced week as auction participants take a breather and some time to digest new information before the next move. Trading is taking place mostly inside last month’s HVN with a slight lean back towards last month’s VPOC which is lower at 4015.
Debriefing NFP 3rd June 2022
FRIDAYS NFP
Debriefing NFP Friday 3rd June 2020
B Distribution, Long liquidation Repair of Thursday’s Poor Auction INSIDE DAY
H 4012 L 4096.75 VPOC 4107 VWAP 4116 CLOSE 4109
REALISTIC TARGETS BASED ON EXPECTED DAILY RANGE EXTREMES
UPSIDE: 4142| 4157|4163|4183|4200|4220 |4250|4274|4303
DOWNSIDE: 4124| 4107| 4098 |4080 |4962| 4050| 4032| 4015 |4000|3987
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